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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd